Fred Singer: Difference between revisions

Siegfried (Fred) Singer (born 27 September 1924 in Vienna) is an American atmospheric physicist. Singer is Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia,^[1] specializing in planetary science, global warming, ozone depletion, and other global environmental issues.

In the 1960s Singer was a leading figure in the early development of earth observation satellites, becoming a Special Advisor on space developments to President Eisenhower and establishing the National Weather Bureau's Satellite Service Center as well as becoming its first Director (1962-64). He has subsequently held a variety of academic and government positions, including Professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia (1971 - 1994).

In the 1980s and 1990s Singer became associated in the public eye with a number of controversial issues, notably on global warming, on which he opposes the scientific opinion on climate change. In 2007, the nonprofit advocacy group Union of Concerned Scientists called Singer a "climate contrarian."^[2] He was offered the use of vacant office space at the Washington Institute for Values in Public Policy in the 1980s, and worked there briefly before starting the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) in 1990 as an independent 501(c)3 non-profit research institute. He is the President of SEPP.

Singer received a B.E.E in Electrical engineering from Ohio State University in 1943; an A.M. in physics from Princeton in 1944; and a Ph.D in physics from Princeton in 1948.^[1] He received an honorary Doctorate of Science from Ohio State University in 1970.^[3]

In the 1940s and 50s Singer designed the first instruments used in satellites to measure cosmic radiation and ozone.^[1] He invented the backscatter photometer ozone-monitoring instrument for early versions of US weather satellites.^[4][5][6] By the early 1960s he was a leading figure in the early development of earth observation satellites, becoming a Special Advisor on space developments to President Eisenhower and establishing and becoming the first Director of the National Weather Bureau's Satellite Service Center (1962-64). He was recognised by President Eisenhower for his contribution to the early design of satellites, receiving a Special Commendation. Upon stepping down as the first Director of the National Weather Bureau's Satellite Service Center he also received a U.S. Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for Distinguished Federal Service.^[3][7][8][9]

In his career Singer has held a variety of government and academic positions.^[1] He was Director of the Center for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Maryland, College Park (1953-62)^[10] and the first Director of the National Weather Bureau's Satellite Service Center (1962-64). ^[3][7] He was the founding Dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences, University of Miami (1964-67),^[3][7] and later Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (1971-94).

Singer has also held a variety of government positions. He was Special Advisor to President Eisenhower on space developments (1960). In the late 1960s and early 70s he was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Water Quality and Research, U.S. Department of the Interior (1967-70), and Deputy Assistant Administrator for Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1970-71). Later he was Chief Scientist, United States Department of Transportation (1987-89). Singer has also been a consultant to the House Select Committee on Space, NASA, GAO, NSF, AEC, NRC, DOD (Strategic Defense Initiative), US DOE Nuclear Waste Panel, the US Treasury, and the state governments of Virginia, Alaska, and Pennsylvania.^[11][12]

Singer has been a consultant to various major corporations, including GE, Ford, GM, Exxon, Shell, Sun Oil, Lockheed Martin and IBM.^[13][14] In the 1990s Singer worked together with a number of industries whose interests matched his views on controversial issues, notably on global warming and on the effects of tobacco smoke and ozone on human health.

A 2007 Newsweek cover story on climate change denial reported that: "In April 1998 a dozen people from the denial machine — including the Marshall Institute, Fred Singer's group and Exxon — met at the American Petroleum Institute's Washington headquarters. They proposed a $5 million campaign, according to a leaked eight-page memo, to convince the public that the science of global warming is riddled with controversy and uncertainty." The plan was reportedly aimed at "raising questions about and undercutting the 'prevailing scientific wisdom'" on climate change. According to Newsweek, the plan was leaked to the press and therefore was never implemented.^[15] ABC News has reported that Singer insists he is not on the payroll of the energy industry, but admits he once received an unsolicited $10,000 from Exxon.^[16]

In 1994 Singer was the Principal Reviewer of a report authored by Kent Jeffreys titled Science, economics, and environmental policy: a critical examination which was published by the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution (AdTI), a conservative think tank of which he was a Senior Fellow.^[17] The report attacked the United States Environmental Protection Agency for their 1993 study about the cancer risks of passive smoking and called it "junk science". Singer also appeared on a tobacco industry list of people who could write op-ed pieces defending the industry’s views, according to a peer-reviewed commentary by Derek Yach and Stella Aguinaga Bialous.^[18] Writing for The Guardian, George Monbiot stated that in 1993 APCO, a public relations firm, sent a memo to Philip Morris vice-president Ellen Merlo stating: "As you know, we have been working with Singer and Dr. Dwight Lee, who have authored articles on junk science and indoor air quality (IAQ) respectively ..."^[19] Monbiot wrote that he did not have direct evidence that Singer had been paid by Philip Morris.

In the 1980s and 1990s Singer became associated in the public eye with a number of controversial issues, notably on global warming. In 2007, the nonprofit advocacy group Union of Concerned Scientists called Singer a "climate contrarian."^[2] He worked with the Washington Institute for Values in Public Policy in the 1980s, before starting the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) in 1990 as an offshoot. He is the President of SEPP.

Singer is skeptical of scientific findings on human-induced global warming^[20],^[21][22] the connection between CFCs and ozone depletion,^[23] and the link between second hand smoke and lung cancer.^[24][25] Singer has also worked with organizations with similar views, such as the Independent Institute,^[26] the American Council on Science and Health,^[27] Frontiers of Freedom,^[28] the Marshall Institute, and the National Center for Policy Analysis,^[29].

Singer said that "Climate change is a natural phenomenon. Climate keeps changing all the time. The fact that climate changes is not in itself a threat, because, obviously, in the past human beings have adapted to all kinds of climate changes." ^[30] He also noted that the urban heat island effect influences surface temperatures, and later in 2003, he asserted that the warming from surface thermometer data was contradicted by satellite and radiosonde data etc.^[31][32] Singer has emphasized natural factors over anthropogenic causes to explain global warming and he wrote:

The Earth currently is experiencing a warming trend, but there is scientific evidence that human activities have little to do with it. Instead, the warming seems to be part of a 1,500-year cycle (plus or minus 500 years) of moderate temperature swings.^[33][34]

Singer has critiqued other scientists' research in Eos, December 16, 1997.^[35] Singer co-authored two 2004 articles in Geophysics Research Letters.^[36] In 2007, studies Singer co-authored found tropospheric temperature trends of 'Climate of the 20th Century' models differed from satellite observations by twice the model mean uncertainty. Models of layers near 5 km were 100% to 300% higher than observation, and above 8 km models and observations had opposite signs.^[37][38] He is the co-author of the New York Times Bestseller Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years^[39] with Dennis T. Avery of the Hudson Institute.

In 2008, Singer's group, the Science and Environmental Policy Project, completed the organization^[40] of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) as the culmination of a process that began in 2003. "The foundation for NIPCC," stated Singer, "was laid ... when a small group of scientists from the United States and Europe met in Milan during one of the frequent UN climate conferences." The Heartland Institute says that "It was not until a workshop with many more scientists, from both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, was held in Vienna in 2007 that the NIPCC organizational effort formally began, however".^[41]

According to the abstract of the 2008 Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, the result of The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change held in New York City, the NIPCC is

"an international coalition of scientists convened to provide an independent examination of the evidence available on the causes and consequences of climate change in the published, peer-reviewed literature – examined without bias and selectivity. It includes many research papers ignored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), plus additional scientific results that became available after the IPCC deadline of May 2006."^[42]

The NIPCC document titled "Nature, Not Human Activity Rules the Climate,"^[43] published by The Heartland Institute^[44] was released in February-March 2008. Singer served as General Editor and is the copyright owner. It is unclear if the report is the "report itself" or the summary of an as-yet unreleased report since the report's second page subtitles it "Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change."

Michael Mann and Gavin Schmidt called it a "dishonest 'assessment' of the science of climate change". ^[45]

In March 2007, Singer appeared in the controversial documentary film The Great Global Warming Swindle which asserted that the mainstream view on global warming was "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times". On the program, Singer imputed to the Chief Scientific Advisor of the United Kingdom, Sir David King the view that "by the end of the century the only habitable place on the earth will be the Antarctic. And humanity may survive thanks to some breeding couples who moved to the Antarctic". Singer then commented "It would be hilarious if it weren't so sad."

The program was the subject of over 200 complaints to the British television regulator Ofcom including one from Sir David King. Sir David complained that he had made no reference to "breeding couples" and that the program had exaggerated his statements by changing his words from "most habitable" to "only habitable". As part of their defense, Channel 4 provided examples of media reports from the time of King's remarks which had imputed to him statements such as "Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century ... the rest of the globe could not sustain human life" while noting that those statements had gone unchallenged for nearly 3 years prior to the program being broadcast. Other evidence showed that Singer had apparently conflated King's remarks with similar remarks made by Sir James Lovelock, specifically "Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable." Ofcom upheld King's claim of unfair treatment in the program since he had not been provided an opportunity to respond as required by broadcast rules.^[46]

In 1991 Singer co-authored a paper with renowned oceanographer Roger Revelle and risk analysis expert Chauncey Starr.^[47] The paper shared part of its title and substantial material with a paper Singer had sole-authored the year before.^[48] Revelle died a few months after the paper was published. Several years later Justin Lancaster, a former associate of Revelle's, asked for Revelle's name to be dropped from a proposed republication of the 1991 paper, alleging that Revelle's contribution was so small as to not justify co-authorship. Some other scientists, such as Walter Munk, shared some of Lancaster's concerns, with Munk writing in 1992 that "S. Fred Singer wrote the paper and, as a courtesy, added Roger as a co-author based upon his willingness to review the manuscript and advise on aspects relating to sea-level rise."^[49] Lancaster's efforts to have Revelle's name dropped resulted in a libel suit in April 1993, which Lancaster conceded in 1994.^[50]

Singer has stated there is a connection between UV-A and melanoma, as well as between the shorter-wavelength UV-B radiation and basal and squamous cell skin cancers. However, he believes that there is "no clear relation" between UV-B and melanoma rates, based on published research in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences regarding UV-B radiation and melanoma^{[51][52][53][54][55]} Singer has variously suggested there is no connection between CFCs and stratospheric ozone loss,^[56] and that no significant ozone loss is occurring.^[57]

In 1960, Singer was one of several scientists who speculated that the Martian moon Phobos was artificial in origin. The claim was based on the erroneous conclusion that Phobos was hollow. Later observations demonstrated conclusively that Phobos was not hollow, rendering the artificial origin speculation moot.^[58][59][60]

In 1981, he proposed a manned mission to the Martian moons. Singer cited the following benefits of a manned mission to Mars' moons over a further delayed direct landing on Mars:^[61]

• Minimal Δv’s needed to reach Phobos’s surface.
• Ability to monitor Mars from a stable platform in low Mars orbit (LMO).
• Ability to teleoperate robots on Mars without significant time delay.
• Opportunity to advance the scientific investigation of small bodies.
• Potential of finding H2O on Phobos which might be used as a resource.

Singer also has been a proponent of manned exploration to Mars.^[62]

In 1994, Singer contributed to a paper on the results from the Interplanetary Dust Experiment using data from the Long Duration Exposure Facility satellite.^[63]

During Operation Desert Storm in 1991, Singer debated Carl Sagan on the impact of the Kuwaiti petroleum fires on the ABC News program Nightline. Sagan said we know from the nuclear winter investigation that the smoke would loft into the upper atmosphere and that he believed the net effects would be very similar to the explosion of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815, which resulted in the year 1816 being known as the year without a summer, in massive agricultural failures, in very serious human suffering and, in some cases, starvation. He predicted the same for south Asia, and perhaps for a significant fraction of the northern hemisphere as well as a result. Singer, on the other hand, said that calculations showed that the smoke would go to an altitude of about 3,000 feet and then be rained out after about three to five days and thus the lifetime of the smoke would be limited.^[64] According to a later study,

Smoke from the Kuwait Oil Fires dominated the synoptic weather pattern throughout the Persian Gulf and surrounding region during 1991. The lower atmospheric wind flow parameters advected smoke along the eastern half of the Arabian Peninsula, and cities like Dhahran, Riyadh and Bahrain experienced days with smoke filled skies and carbon fallout.

[...]

Differential smoke advection at all three sites led to significant temperature variations. Smoke from the Kuwait oil fires lowered mean maximum and mean temperatures at Dhahran and Riyadh during 1991. Cooler Persian Gulf temperatures caused by the oil spill into the gulf and oil fire smoke lowered mean maximum, mean and mean minimum at Bahrain during 1991.

However

Although lower temperatures were recorded in 1991, Kuwait oil fires had no lasting meteorological impacts at any of the locations examined, and there has been no change to the seasonal synoptic weather patterns throughout the Persian Gulf Region.

^[65]

• Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate^[43] a document claiming to be a "Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change", although there is no evidence that the report of which it claims to be a summary exists. Edited by S. Fred Singer, copyright SEPP, published for the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change by "The Heartland Institute", March 2008.
• (with Dennis T Avery) Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years. Rowman & Littlefield, 2006. 260 pp ISBN 0742551172
• S. Fred Singer, The Changing Global Environment. Springer, 1975. 431 pp ISBN 978-9027703859
• S. Fred Singer, ed. Global Effects of Environmental Pollution. Springer, 1970. 232 pp ISBN 978-9027701510 Amazon.com listing PDF preview of book

• List of scientists opposing global warming consensus

• The Science & Environmental Policy Project
• George Monbiot, The Guardian, May 10, 2005, "Junk science:David Bellamy's inaccurate and selective figures on glacier shrinkage are a boon to climate change deniers" (Bellamy's figures came ultimately from Singer but are contradicted by the World Glacier Monitoring Service.)
• An interview with Dr. Singer, February 2001
• Environmental Strategies with Uncertain Science, Regulation 13(1), Winter 1990
• The Revelle-Gore Story: Attempted Political Suppression of Science
• The Denial Machine is a video from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation featuring Fred Singer
• The cows missed the movie by Debra J. Saunders

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