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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by HavocPlayz (talk | contribs) at 00:05, 14 November 2022 (→‎Seasonal Summary: Reply). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Above average hurricane season?

We already have our 15th tropical cyclone already, so I am only asking if it is too soon to tell, or should I mention that it is widely expected to be an above average hurricane season? Williamwang363 (talk) 18:46, 31 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

The problem with doing as you propose is that it would be both original research and inaccurate. Consider this: "Lisa’s formation comes almost two weeks after the average development date of the Atlantic’s 12th named storm of the year, October 11. This season’s activity now stands at 12 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index only 73% of average for the date. The 1991-2020 averages for October 31 are 13.4 named storms, 6.6 hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. So despite the catastrophic rampage of Hurricane Ian, the Atlantic as a whole is having a less active season than usual by most metrics." (Tropical Storm Lisa forms in the central Caribbean, Jeff Masters, Eye on the Storm, October 31, 2022.) Drdpw (talk) 19:02, 31 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
One note, it’s not our fifteenth tropical cyclone. PTC4 screwed up some stuff pushing back the numbers. Therefore, even if we count 11 and 12, we have a decently average to below average season. Also, while I am not normally in the tropical storms field, I don't think 1 storm should be considered above average. Mitch199811 (talk) 03:04, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The season is currently at the low end of near average activity, and it would take the most active November on record to push it above average. Mvhcmaniac (talk) 12:50, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
By that logic, how come is 2007 considered above average, despite also having a below-average ACE? AnDeargMor (talk) 18:16, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I modified the lead to state: "There were an above-average number of named storms during the season." Drdpw (talk) 19:30, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Even in terms of named storms, we have a few to go before this season would be considered outside the normal range. Mvhcmaniac (talk) 21:05, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I agree, off-average by 1 or 2 shouldn't require notation. Mitch199811 (talk) 02:11, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Whats the most active? Mitch199811 (talk) 00:21, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
See List of Atlantic hurricane records. Drdpw (talk) 01:06, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Tracks of All Tropical Cyclones

FYI. I just wanted to let everybody know that the map at the beginning of the Article of the tracks of all the Tropical Cyclones during this hurricane season has NOT been fully updated. Hurricane Julia and Tropical Storm Karl haven't been added to the map yet, however it would be fine if the tracks of Hurricane Lisa and Hurricane Martin were added after they have either degenerated to remnant lows or dissipated.

The reason I haven't tried to do this yet is because I'm new and I can't edit due to the semi-protectiveness of this page, so somebody please update it.

Thanks! Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 23:35, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

You may create an edit request if you would like. Sarrail (talk) 23:38, 1 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I agree with you @Wikieditorperson1, the track should be updated to include Karl and Julia as well. Hurricane Chandler (talk) 01:15, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Turns out the creator of the map, HurricaneCovid, wasn't active in the past two weeks. Certainly needs an update. Sarrail (talk) 01:18, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
How does he make them, because I could take over his role. Mitch199811 (talk) 02:04, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
It was Supportstorm that was updating the image, but appears to be offline. The file is here. Sarrail (talk) 02:11, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
@Hurricane Chandler@Mitch199811@Sarrail Do any of you guys know how to update the track map? Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 15:46, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
No, I don't. :( But I'll try to figure out how to work and update this thing. Sarrail (talk) 16:00, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
@SarrailAlright, thanks! Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 16:13, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I don't know. One idea I had was to overlay all the maps on each other but I don't have the tools for that. Mitch199811 (talk) 16:42, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
It really is tough. I've tried using tools to also overlay Julia's and Karl's tracks on the map, and even using Procreate, but turns out it doesn't work that way! Sarrail (talk) 16:46, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Do any of you know the creators of the combined track map? Maybe you guys can contact them so that they can update it. Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 18:13, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Stated above, HurricaneCovid the creator, and the user who updates is Supportstorm. I have pinged them to direct them to this conversation. Sarrail (talk) 18:19, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
What was the issue; were they not cutting right? Mitch199811 (talk) 18:35, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
They have been inactive for now, based on their contributions, Supportstorm's and HurricaneCovid's. They have been out nearly a week ago (I certainly do hope they update the map soon.) Sarrail (talk) 18:39, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
No, I meant what happened to where you couldn't edit it right? Mitch199811 (talk) 18:58, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
FleurDeOdile has made the individual tracks for the storms, maybe we call them up for advice? Mitch199811 (talk) 19:00, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Yeah I thing that might be our best bet right now. Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 20:10, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I told them on their talk page, that we were wondering how they are made. Mitch199811 (talk) 23:52, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Okay hopefully one of them responds. Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 01:10, 3 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Sadly I do not :( Hurricane Chandler (talk) 22:07, 2 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Not to be impatient or anything, but the combined track map needs to be updated. (The tracks of the TD part of Lisa and the Extratropical part of Martin.) Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 14:28, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not inactive just been slightly busier than usually lately. These season tracks get updated every few weeks so it's not unusual for them to be slightly outdated. I'll update them later today. Supportstorm (talk) 16:46, 3 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@Supportstorm I really appreciate you coming back online, and I have viewed the updated track map. Could the tracks of when the cyclones became post-tropical still be kept, like in the older version? I can't see the tracks of when they became post-tropical. Thanks for your help! Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 17:02, 3 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Map seems to be updated by now, by Master0Garfield. Sarrail (talk) 23:29, 3 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Alright. Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 11:45, 4 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
[Reposted] Not to be impatient or anything, but the combined track map needs to be updated. (The tracks of the TD part of Lisa and the Extratropical part of Martin.) Wikieditorperson1 (talk) 15:40, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
You are being impatient, and unreasonable as well. Please stop being so demanding. Drdpw (talk) 17:40, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
BTW, the editors who are updating the map are quite busy at this time; please give them time and patience. Sarrail (talk) 17:42, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Semi-protected edit request on 5 November 2022

For the first time since 1932, there were two Atlantic hurricanes in November https://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurricane-season/martin-is-the-first-november-hurricane-on-record-in-the-far-north-atlantic-morales/2899928/ 98.116.91.124 (talk) 16:58, 5 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I believe hurricanes Noel and Michelle overlap. Mitch199811 (talk) 20:19, 5 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Yes, this is the first time since Michelle and Noel that two hurricanes overlapped (active at the same time). I have noted this in the season summary section. Drdpw (talk) 20:29, 5 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I did also see Theta, Eta, and Iota over lapping but only one was a hurricane at a time. Mitch199811 (talk) 14:46, 6 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I have clarified the sentence: at hurricane strength simultaneously. Drdpw (talk) 16:55, 6 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
can you change that to "at hurricane strength" instead. You had an extra s. Firefrogs (talk) 20:37, 8 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
 Done; thanks. Drdpw (talk) 21:15, 8 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Nicole Draft

If and when are we making a draft for it? Mitch199811 (talk) 13:06, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like there is a short Nicole draft already. DarkSide830 (talk) 14:12, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
 Courtesy link: Draft:Tropical Storm Nicole (2022) Sarrail (talk) 14:24, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Should it be Subtropical storm? Mitch199811 (talk) 19:46, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
At this point I would suggest leaving it as is until it becomes a hurricane (or until it becomes clear that it will not). Drdpw (talk) 20:03, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Semi-protected edit request on 7 November 2022

Hermine is listed after Ian on chart when it came before ian 68.205.114.196 (talk) 22:16, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

 Not done Ian formed before Hermine as Tropical Depression Nine, but reached topical storm strength after Hermine did. They are listed in order of formation, rather than order of naming. TornadoLGS (talk) 22:22, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Semi-protected edit request on 7 November 2022 (2)

Florida is now on a tropical storm warning, and would like to change/add that Animized (talk) 23:19, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

 Not done As of the 7pm advisory, it is under a watch yet. Mitch199811 (talk) 23:47, 7 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Near-Average?

hey, so the season atleast is near average. Can I put it as "There has been near-average activity in the North Atlantic Basin so far" like in the Eastern Pacific? Refsrdr (talk) 08:46, 8 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

No, because the season is not officially over yet, so theres really no saying. PopularGames (talk) 13:18, 8 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
To date (November 6): # named storms – average; # hurricanes – average; # major hurricanes – near-average; ACE – near-average. (Eye on the Storm (YCC)). Drdpw (talk) 14:16, 8 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Then why does the eastern pacific have "There has been above-average activity so far"? Refsrdr (talk) 23:26, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Drafts

Currently there are three storms with a draft, Karl, Lisa, and Nicole. Karl and Lisa seem to have been abandoned on the basis of lack notability. Are we going to abandon those two or what? I was thinking of submitting them for review and seeing what happens. Nicole is currently active so I do not expect it to have an article. Mitch199811 (talk) 00:22, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I'm currently working on Lisa. Karl could be submitted and you could see what happens. Hurricane Chandler (talk) 02:32, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Nicole will most probably have an article. I have redirected the Lisa draft. Its impact and aftermath are insufficiently notable for a standalone article, and its story can and is fully told in the season section of this article. The Karl draft was declined a couple weeks ago because it contains little information beyond what's in the storm summary of this article, which is still the case. As with the Lisa draft, I can find no additional substantive details to add. If its story can be fully told in the season article, it might not need a standalone article. Drdpw (talk) 03:26, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Shouldn't drafts not be redirects so they can be worked on? Mitch199811 (talk) 14:46, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I agree with @Mitch199811, the draft shouldn’t be redirected until it is abandoned. Only minutes before you redirected it, Sarrail and I had already been working on it. Hurricane Su (talk) 20:34, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Fiona peak intensity image

I've found Fiona's peak intensity image, and the "near peak intensity" image that is currently being used. Which one should be used?

Sarrail (talk) 16:42, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Are you proposing that we change images? FYI: the 0640z image is Fiona upon attaining peak wind speed, not at lowest barometric pressure. The 1750z image is a few hours before Fiona, still at peak wind speed, reached its lowest barometric pressure. Drdpw (talk) 17:51, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Thank you for the clarification. Fiona's image will not be changed. Sarrail (talk) 17:55, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

2023 article?

currently working on 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, is it ok to do it right now? or too soon? Rainbow Galaxy POC (talk) 22:09, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Tbh, expanding it now is perfectly fine, just I’d recommend not submitting it until at least January 1, 2023. Hurricane Su (talk) 23:05, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
This comes up each season at about this time. Go ahead and work on it, but don't be surprised if it gets redirected a few times between now and next spring for being WP:TOOSOON. Drdpw (talk) 23:11, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Is it too soon to wikilink it? Mitch199811 (talk) 00:46, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I've WP:BOLD redirected as this meet to WP:TOOSOON wait until TSR released their predictions for the 2023 season. HurricaneEdgar 06:02, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Article on Nicole?

It's looking like Tropical Storm maybe Hurricane Nicole will make a significant impact on Florida. Should we write a standalone article about it? CrownKing0wl (talk) 22:13, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

its already here Draft:Tropical Storm Nicole (2022) Rainbow Galaxy POC (talk) 22:16, 9 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four

To avoid spreading this into WP:3RR, Unar64P is constantly reverting my edits on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, when we do not need an infobox. Four only moved onshore near Mexico and caused minor damages. An infobox on this is not necessary. Sarrail (talk) 01:35, 11 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@Sarrail with a the storm winds 55 km/h no td it a low Unar64P (talk) 14:51, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Regardless if it is a low, an infobox is therefore not needed. This has also occured with several other articles on "Other systems". There may be an infobox on TDs, (e.g. TD 11, 12) but on Potential Tropical Cyclones it is not needed. Sarrail (talk) 14:53, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Article summary

Are we going to mention anything about Lisa, Martin, and Nicole? Mitch199811 (talk) 16:30, 11 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Lisa and Martin have a two-sentence mention and Nicole has a brief one-sentence mention. You can add a sentence about its impact if you'd like. Drdpw (talk) 16:48, 11 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Why is AccuWeather not a reliable source?

I would like to know. What is wrong with AccuWeather? Why isn’t it reliable for damage totals? DENBRO1995 (talk) 00:07, 12 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@DENBRO1995: The totals come from the CEO Joel Myers whose educational background is in meteorology, not economics. AccuWeather's totals have a history of being wildly overblown, especially when compared to government assessments and insurance companies. For example, he estimated $8–12 billion for Henri 2021 when in reality the damage was $700 million. His estimate of $180–210 billion for Hurricane Ian is incredibly inconsistent from the majority of reliable sources thus AccuWeather continues to be judged as unreliable for damage assessments. Their general reporting, however, is reliable. ~ Cyclonebiskit (chat) 03:17, 12 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@Cyclonebiskit: Oh, so what Myers is saying is that Ian was more costly than Katrina and Harvey, and Henri was the costliest storm to not have its name retired, beating Sally. Now I understand. DENBRO1995 (talk) 13:14, 12 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, it states in the Henri link that the CEO had been studying tropical impact for 50 years, so honestly, it could be accurate. Don’t get me wrong though, Ian did not cause 210 billion, but the 8 billion estimate for Henri (while a bit of a stretch) could be semi-accurate Hurricane Su (talk) 02:18, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
But the $210 billion for Hurricane Ian... this is why AccuWeather is generally not a reliable source. A bit too off... Sarrail (talk) 02:26, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Yeah I agree, there is no way Ian caused more than Katrina Hurricane Su (talk) 14:33, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I mean, in his little bubble, Ian still did less than Katrina. Mitch199811 (talk) 15:59, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

And to recap, Ian remains one of the costliest on record but not the overall costliest. It is behind Sandy and five other storms in terms of cost of damage. DENBRO1995 (talk) 15:12, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Numbers

Why are the tenth and eleventh entries called "11" and "12"? 104.153.40.58 (talk) 20:16, 12 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four (listed under "Other systems") took number four on the list, even though it never became a tropical cyclone. So then Danielle took number five, even though it was only the fourth cyclone, and so on for the rest of the season. TornadoLGS (talk) 20:45, 12 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane Nicole Image

Why does Nicole's image look so off compared to the other ones? It is a lot less opaque that the others clouds. Mitch199811 (talk) 23:28, 12 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I believe it's because the image was taken during night, then it was colorized to make it look like it was during day. RandomInfinity17 (talk) 18:35, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Seasonal Summary

Why are we even using the NHCs? Those ones aren’t easy to update nor update unless there’s a TCR change. Using the existing summary with BT data makes it easier to update since we only need to use the brand new updated data to generate the map HavocPlayz (talk) 20:38, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Why would we need to update the seasonal summary map produced by the experts? We can’t change data per original research, so why shouldn’t we just use NHC’s data/map? Elijahandskip (talk) 20:59, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The BT data is provided by the NHC. Using the maps they provide makes it harder to keep up to date cause that one is manually drawn and not created for the North Indian or West Pacific basins nor all of SHEM. That’s why using. Best track data is more favorable and common place since you only need to change out the old data with the revised data once its public without issues. HavocPlayz (talk) 21:02, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Again, why create a map when the experts produce a map… No revisions would be necessary. Just a simple image we add that NHC produces. No need to go through all these extra steps. Elijahandskip (talk) 21:14, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The NHC takes longer to update theirs and tends to be outdated once they produce TCRs at a high right. And again i say this. These maps aren’t created for non NHC basins ruining any consistency they have. On top of that, the BT generated map is more pleasant to the eyes HavocPlayz (talk) 21:23, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I hate that you really think NHC “tends to be outdated” when it is coming from the TCRs. Either way, I won’t argue about this seasonal article, but I plan to start an RfC if necessary to add the images to any tropical cyclone article in NHC basins (like Hurricane Ian once the TCR is complete for it). Elijahandskip (talk) 21:51, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
No point in doing an RFC if you want to split the community. Your gonna drag people into a months long issue this way if its not shot down early on HavocPlayz (talk) 23:48, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
an RFC for this idea would be dumb in my opinion, would easily be shot down HurricaneKappa (talk) 23:54, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
And we are still recovering from what was the SSHWS color debate. No one has ever had an issue with BT data until you decided to, without telling anyone, swap the track images. This level of a change requires others thoughts and opinions, not just your own @Elijahandskip HavocPlayz (talk) 23:58, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I will point out that it was a WP:BOLD change, so technically I could switch it without requiring discussion. Once you (hopefully good faith) reverted both different bold edits, I came here without further additions/challenges. Elijahandskip (talk) 00:01, 14 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
(edit conflict) Well I started the first discussion on Talk:Tropical Storm Alex (2022) and I proposed keeping the Wikipedia editor made tracks for the seasonal article (this one) and any tracks in infoboxes, but switching the tracks that are just images in a “meteorological history” section to the official NHC ones that are released with the TCR. One perk of using the NHC track from the TCR is the legend built into the map. That actually makes it easier to understand and read, rather than having the legend in the description of the image (like the Wikipedia editor made ones). That seems like a good compromise & that also allows both tracks to exist on Wikipedia in their respective spots. Elijahandskip (talk) 23:59, 13 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
By now most people know what the SSHWS colors mean given how often they are seen. The NHC track maps are best left unused at all as the biggest issue is they don’t go later then 95 nor are seen in other non NHC basins ruining consistency between seasonal articles. The NHC ones also hold the disadvantage that you can’t see the precursor track of the system and its post TC phase nor can they be changed rapidly on a seasonal summary map cause well, its not BT data where we just change the old data with the new one and just generate it. HavocPlayz (talk) 00:05, 14 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
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