2009 Uruguayan general election: Difference between revisions

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General elections to elect a President and Parliament will take place in Uruguay on 25 October 2009.

Recent polls have suggested a competitive environment for both the ruling Broad Front and the opposition parties.^[1]

A poll from November 2007 gave the Broad Front 39% support, against the PN-B's 30% and the PC's 9%.^[2]

A poll published on 21 December 2007, on El Espectador online, regarding general election voter preferences, from the reputed Factum polling firm, reported that the Broad Front had the support of 44% of the electorate, the Partido Nacional 34%, the Colorado Party 9% and the Independent Party 2%. The undecided portion of the electorate according to this poll is 9%..^[3]

A more recent poll of Factum, published on March 28, 2008, by El Espectador, suggests the voting intention of the ruling Frente Amplio (FA) keeps decreasing. According to this poll, inquiring voting intentions for the next general election, the Frente Amplio has the support of 42% of the electorate, the Partido Nacional (PN) increases its support to 35%, the Colorado Party (PC) 8% and the Independent Party (PI) 1%. According to this same poll, 11% of the electorate is undecided, and 3% would cast null/void ballots. .^[4]

A poll published by the renown polling firm Cifra, published in the Montevideo daily "El País" on May 29, 2008, indicates that 40% of Uruguayans would vote for the Frente Amplio, 32% for the Partido Nacional, and 8% for the Partido Colorado. The remaining 20% of the electorate is undecided or might cast a blank/void vote. ^[5]

A poll released by Interconsult, and published in the Montevideo daily "Ultimas Noticias" on July 28, 2008, indicates that the Frente Amplio would currently win 42% of the popular vote, the Partido Nacional 34%, the Partido Colorado 8% and the Partido Independiente 1%. The remaining 15% is either undecided or supports other parties. ^[6]

A new series of polls released in late November and early December 2008, confirmed the close contest the next presidential elections will probably be. In a poll published in el Espectador November 24, 2008, polling firm Interconsult measured the current support for the FA at 40%, the PN at 36%, the PC at 8%, the PI at 2%, others at 3%, and undecideds, 11%. ^[7] Factum released a poll on November 28, 2008, suggesting that support for the FA was at 42%, the PN at 37%, the PC at 9% and the PI at 1.5%. ^[8] Cifra released a poll on December 1, 2008, showing support for the ruling FA at 41%, the PN with 36%, the PC with 9%, the PI 1%, with 13% of the electorate undecided. ^[9]

A recent poll shows wide support for the ruling party coalition with an over 10 point lead, with the right wing losing ground ahead of the election. ^[10]

On June 28, 2009, there were primaries with free vote. Three parties had several precandidates, and the results were:

• Broad Front
  • José Mujica (Espacio 609, Partido Comunista) - winner
  • Danilo Astori (Asamblea Uruguay, Alianza Progresista, Nuevo Espacio, Partido Socialista)
  • Marcos Carámbula (Vertiente Artiguista)

• National Party
  • Luis Alberto Lacalle (Unidad Nacional, Soplan Vientos Nuevos) - winner
  • Jorge Larrañaga (Alianza Nacional, Civic Union)
  • Irineu Riet Correa
• Colorado Party
  • Pedro Bordaberry (Vamos Uruguay) - winner
  • José Amorín (Batllismo Siglo XXI)
  • Luis Hierro (Foro Batllista)
  • Daniel Lamas
• Independent Party
  • Pablo Mieres
• Popular Assembly
  • Raúl Rodríguez

On October 25th, 2009 the electorate will go to the polls once again, this time with compulsory voting. The clear favorites are José Mujica and Luis Alberto Lacalle. Although they are very different and many speculate with a polarization of the electorate, in fact both are struggling hard in order to win the centre.^[11] This is clear since the very moment that both candidates chose their running mates: Luis Alberto Lacalle chose Jorge Larrañaga, thus uniting the whole National Party; and José Mujica chose Danilo Astori, former finance minister with social democratic ideas.

The Colorado Party is still unable to excite the electorate; Pedro Bordaberry will give a try. Another interesting party is the Independent Party, with its candidates Pablo Mieres-Iván Posada. Popular Assembly, a small, new extreme left party, is not expected to win much support.

• Politics Data Bank at the Social Sciences School - Universidad de la República (Uruguay)