Allianz Trade in South Africa

🌎 This week our economists look at the return of Trump and the implications of a Republican sweep scenario: 1. Inflation, GDP and Fed Funds outlook: President Trump’s victory at the US elections and the likely full Republican control of the Congress do not change our forecasts for US GDP much but we now expect inflation to rise to 2.9% and 3.4% in 2025 and 2026. Fed Funds rates are expected to be stuck at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.25% in 2026. 2. Fiscal policy: We expect that President Trump will push through a fiscal package of around 0.5% of GDP by the end of 2025 (net of savings), as well as the full renewal of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, bringing the total fiscal package to 1.6% of GDP. 3. Trade policy: President Trump is expected to increase US import tariffs as early as Q2 2025 through an executive order, initially raising tariffs to 25% for Chinese imports and to 5% for imports from the rest of the world, excluding Canada, Mexico and critical goods. We estimate USD135bn worth of global exports would be at risk, equal to 4% of the projected global export gains for 2025-26. 4. Capital markets: The overall market response was more muted than in 2016 as much of the "Trump trade" had already been priced. Looking ahead, we expect US long-term interest rates to remain high, influenced by rising inflation expectations, less monetary easing and persistent fiscal deficits, and a small boost for US risky assets in 2024. Read the full report here: https://ow.ly/vaq750U24vj #Economics #Economy #USElections

Can you identify warning signs of customers who may struggle to pay you back? In a climate marked by prolonged economic uncertainty and growing insolvencies, late and non-paying buyers can threaten your business’s growth or stability. 👉 Learn 6 strategies that can help you detect early warning signs of distressed buyers, as well as help protect your cash flow from late payers: https://ow.ly/6A8i50TPNOq #TradeCreditInsurance #TCI

What’s the outlook for the global #ITServices 💻 sector? Digitalization and AI will support the IT services sector, which should grow by close to +10% in 2024. But startups are under pressure from high interest rates and labor costs amid a fierce competition for talent and a shortage of skilled labor. Read the full sector risk report here 👉 https://ow.ly/q0cO50TlRJR

🔍 Understanding gearing ratios is essential for assessing a company's financial health. They compare a company’s debt to its equity, providing insights into its financial stability and risk. Different types of gearing ratios exist and can be calculated in various ways to provide information on how leveraged a company is. 👉 Check out our article to enhance your understanding: https://ow.ly/VZNW50TKLe6 #gearingratio #debttoequity #financialhealth

📈 Business insolvencies will accelerate by 11% this year, according to latest research. And this number is even higher in certain European countries. With longer payment periods (even as high as 90+ days!) and greater global working capital requirements, it may be harder to carry out business as usual. How do you mitigate the risk of late payments? Check out 3 safeguarding options 👉 https://ow.ly/fTwW50TKLsm #DSO #LatePayments #WCR #AllianzResearch

A slight improvement is on the way for the global #chemicals 🧪 sector – but challenges persist for European firms. Destocking and the weak economic outlook have held back the demand recovery for the chemicals sector. But as consumer spending becomes more robust and the global economic outlook gradually recovers, chemicals demand should improve, along with companies' margins. Read the full sector risk report here 👉 https://ow.ly/BKoJ50TlKlp

🌎 In our latest global economic outlook, we look at the great balancing act ⚖️ ahead in 2024-2026. These are some of the main takeaways: 1️⃣ Steady (not stellar) global growth ahead at +2.8% until 2026, in line with the long-term average. The #US economy is slowing but will remain the main support, while momentum is gradually building in hashtag #Europe, though #Germany will only exit the recession by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, in #China, policy easing can only partly compensate for the headwinds brought on by the continued real estate crisis. 2️⃣ It’s austerity time (again). The fiscal consolidation ahead will be the big elephant in the room as it will represent a drag on GDP growth of around -0.3pp on average until 2027 in both the US and Europe. 3️⃣ #Inflation should reach the 2% target in H1 2025, allowing for a strong(er) easing cycle ahead. 4️⃣ Restocking has started and is likely to be a tailwind for the global #trade recovery. We expect global trade to increase by around +3% in 2025-26 in volume terms, but to remain below the long-term average. 5️⃣ Geopolitical tensions pose downside risks to our scenario, from a potential surge in US protectionism if Donald Trump wins the US elections and high political uncertainty in major European countries to the ongoing conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and tensions in the South-China-Sea and with Taiwan. Discover the full report here: https://ow.ly/9uT950TyCXb

Growth: corporate development must be a priority objective. Expanding the market, innovating products and improving internal processes are crucial steps to increase competitiveness and generate value for customers and stakeholders. Securing your trade receivables is a strategic step to help your business grow sustainably and securely. Let's see how together: https://lnkd.in/dVshg4rt #AllianzTrade #therightmoment

⚠️ It now takes an average of 59 days to receive payments for goods or services sold. How do you protect your business against the growing threat of late payments? With buyer insolvency running high in 2024, businesses have to apply greater due diligence with partners to ensure that operations can continue running smoothly. 🔍Take a deeper dive into late payment trends and learn how you can keep DSO in check: https://ow.ly/zfBa50ToTy7 #DSO #LatePayments #WCR #AllianzResearch

🌟 We understand the pivotal role that trust plays in business - after all, we are insurance and risk assesment experts 😅 And when asked in our recent global customer NPS survey, an overwhelming 90% of respondents answered that they perceive us as a trustworthy brand. 🤝This heartening feedback is music in our ears and it reaffirms our commitment to fostering trust and reliability in all our interactions. 🎵 We are grateful for the confidence displayed by our customers and we remain dedicated to earning and maintaining the trust of our valued clients. #ConfidenceInTomowrrow #CustomerExperience #YourVoiceMatters #CX