2004 United States presidential election in Rhode Island

2004 United States presidential election in Rhode Island
Turnout	62.1% 0.7 pp
Kerry 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Bush 50–60%
President before election; George W. Bush; Republican	Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Rhode Island took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Rhode Island was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 20.75% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Even though President George W. Bush fared better than he had in four years earlier, he was overwhelmingly defeated in a traditional Democratic stronghold, winning only 38% of the vote to 59% for Kerry.

As of 2020, this remains the only time in history that a Republican president has been re-elected without carrying Rhode Island.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]


Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Solid D
Cook Political Report	Solid D
Research 2000	Solid D
Zogby International	Likely D
Washington Post	Solid D
Washington Dispatch	Likely D
Washington Times	Solid D
The New York Times	Solid D
CNN	Solid D
Newsweek	Solid D
Associated Press	Solid D
Rasmussen Reports	Solid D

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, each with a double-digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $282,237.^[4] Kerry raised $977,390.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited here in the fall campaign.^[6]^[7]

Analysis

Federally, Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only six states to vote against Ronald Reagan. Reagan did carry Rhode Island in his 49-state victory in 1984, but the state was the second weakest of the states Reagan won. Rhode Island was the Democrats' leading state in 1988 and 2000, and second-best in 1996 and 2004.

Historically, the state was devoted to Republicans until 1908, but has only strayed from the Democrats seven times in the 24 elections that have followed. In 2004, Rhode Island gave John Kerry more than a 20% margin of victory (the third-highest of any state), with 59.4% of its vote. All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate. The only exceptions were East Greenwich, West Greenwich and Scituate.

Having some of the highest taxes in the nation, Rhode Island is considered to be a liberal bastion. In addition, Rhode Island has abolished capital punishment, making it one of 15 states that have done so. Rhode Island abolished the death penalty very early, just after Michigan (the first state to abolish it), and carried out its last execution in the 1840s.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Rhode Island
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	259,760	59.42%	4
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	169,046	38.67%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	4,651	1.06%	0
	Green	David Cobb	1,333	0.30%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	907	0.2%	0
	Independent	Write Ins	845	0.21%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	339	0.08%	0
	Workers World	John Parker	253	0.06%	0

By county

County	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes cast
Bristol	14,448	58.42%	9,855	39.85%	429	1.73%	4,593	18.57%	24,732
Kent	42,830	54.90%	33,699	43.19%	1,489	1.91%	9,131	11.71%	78,018
Newport	22,992	56.87%	16,622	41.12%	812	2.00%	6,370	15.75%	40,426
Providence	144,811	62.60%	82,337	35.59%	4,176	1.81%	62,474	27.01%	231,324
Washington	34,679	55.37%	26,533	42.36%	1,422	2.27%	8,146	13.01%	62,634
Totals	259,760	59.42%	169,046	38.67%	8,328	1.91%	90,714	20.75%	437,134

By congressional district

Kerry won both congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	36%	62%	Patrick J. Kennedy
2nd	41%	57%	James Langevin

Electors

Technically the voters of Rhode Island cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Rhode Island is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

Teresa Paiva-Weed
Elizabeth Dennigan
John C. Lynch
Mark Weiner

References

^ This figure is calculated by dividing the total number of votes cast in 2004 (440,372) by an estimate of the number of registered voters in Rhode Island in 2004 (709,050). See "Presidential Turnout History" (PDF). Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved February 6, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW ^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls". uselectionatlas.org.
^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
^ "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
^ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.

[1] This figure is calculated by dividing the total number of votes cast in 2004 (440,372) by an estimate of the number of registered voters in Rhode Island in 2004 (709,050). See "Presidential Turnout History" (PDF). Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved February 6, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}

[2] ttp://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW ^{[permanent dead link]}

[3] "2004 Presidential Election Polls". uselectionatlas.org.

[4] "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".

[5] "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".

[6] "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.

[7] "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.

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