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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Reporting
99%
as of Nov. 9, 7:10pm EST[1]
 
Nominee Dave McCormick Bob Casey Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,370,659 3,330,514
Percentage 49.0% 48.6%

McCormick:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Casey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dave McCormick
Republican

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a fourth term against challenger Republican nominee Dave McCormick. The primary election took place on April 23, 2024.[2] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

As of November 8, 2024, most major networks including ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC have yet to call the race. The Associated Press declared McCormick the winner.

Should McCormick win, with Democrats flipping Pennsylvania's other senate seat two years earlier, this election would be the most recent time a party would flip a senate seat in a state whose other seat was flipped by the opposition party in the previous election cycle. This previously occurred in Indiana in 2010 and 2012. This is the state's closest Senate election since 1956, which was also decided by less than one percent.

Background

[edit]

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016.[4][5][6][7]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points.[8][9][10]

The race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls showed Casey to be the slight favorite to win.[11] Most networks have not projected a winner yet, but the Associated Press and Fox News have projected a win for McCormick.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission[49]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[50]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes 1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[53]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[71]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave McCormick (R) $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission[49]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[50]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dave McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes 878,320 100.00%

Third parties

[edit]

Libertarian convention

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • John Thomas, educator[80]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020[81]

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Leila Hazou, shop owner[82]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Bernard Selker, truck driver[82]

American Solidarity Party

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[84] Tossup October 21, 2024
Inside Elections[85] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Lean D June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[87] Lean D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[88] Lean D October 24, 2024
CNalysis[89] Lean D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[90] Tossup August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[91] Lean D October 23, 2024
538[92] Lean D October 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Executive branch officials
John Thomas (L)
Individuals
Dave McCormick (R)
Former U.S. executive officials
U.S. Senators
Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey (D) $52,879,737 $50,545,793 $2,821,961
Dave McCormick (R) $27,698,652[b] $26,030,736 $1,675,736
Source: Federal Election Commission[49]

Debates

[edit]
2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Casey McCormick
1 October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis Owens YouTube P P
2 October 15, 2024 WPVI-TV Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia C-SPAN P P

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Dave
McCormick (R) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% Casey +2.8%
RealClearPolitics October 21 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.1% 46.3% 5.6% Casey +1.8%
270toWin October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 45.9% 5.7% Casey +2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.6% 46.6% 4.8% Casey +2.0%
Average 48.3% 46.1% 5.6% Casey +2.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel November 3–4, 2024 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 2% 2%
Survation November 1–4, 2024 929 (LV) – 49% 42% 3%[d] 6%
Research Co. November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 46% 2%[e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) November 1–3, 2024 903 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 1–3, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% – 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
AtlasIntel November 1–2, 2024 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Emerson College[A] October 30 – November 2, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – 6%
NYT/Siena College[B] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,527 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 4%
1,527 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% – 6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU October 25 – November 2, 2024 699 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 1%[g] 6%
726 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 43% 2%[h] 7%
Morning Consult October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,538 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 11%
OnMessage (R) October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 46% 46% – 8%
Data for Progress (D) October 25–31, 2024 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 2%[i] 4%
YouGov[C] October 25–31, 2024 947 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% – 6%
982 (RV) 50% 43% – 6%
ActiVote October 14–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Muhlenberg College[D] October 27–30, 2024 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 49% 46% 3% 1%
Suffolk University[E] October 27–30, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[i] 2%
Marist College October 27–30, 2024 1,400 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
1,558 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
Echelon Insights October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 47% 3%[k] 5%
AtlasIntel October 27–30, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 3%[f] 2%
The Washington Post October 26–30, 2024 1,204 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[l] 3%
1,204 (RV) 49% 45% 3%[m] 3%
AtlasIntel October 25–29, 2024 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Fox News October 24–28, 2024 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1%
1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 50% 47% 2%[n] 1%
Monmouth University October 24–28, 2024 824 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% – 12%
CNN/SSRS October 23–28, 2024 819 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 45% 6%[o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov October 22–28, 2024 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% 3%[p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 2%[q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[F] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% 5%[r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 16–23, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3%[s] 7%
Emerson College[G] October 21–22, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 46% 2%[t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 18–22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College October 9–20, 2024 583 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 48% – 3%
794 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 41% 5%[v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 17–19, 2024 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 6%
AtlasIntel October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 48% 2%[w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% – 8%
YouGov[H] October 7–17, 2024 1,043 (LV) ± 3.44% 50% 42% – 8%
1,062 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% – 9%
Morning Consult October 6–15, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] October 7–10, 2024 857 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% – 8%
857 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 43% – 9%
American Pulse Research & Polling October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 45% 2%[x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R)[F] October 7–9, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 1%[y] 9%
1,079 (RV) 48% 40% 1%[z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 2–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 3%[aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 7–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% 2%[q] 6%
Emerson College[A] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 6%
Research Co. October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 44% 1%[ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 51% 43% 2%[ac] 5%
ActiVote September 6 – October 7, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ad] September 28–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 44% 5%[ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R) September 27–29, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – –
The Bullfinch Group[I] September 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 39% 12%[af] –
52% 42% 6%[ag] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Emerson College[G] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% – 8%
AtlasIntel September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 45% 1%[ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 48% 42% 3%[ai] 6%
52% 45% – 3%
Fox News September 20–24, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		September 17–24, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) September 16–22, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 40% 1%[ak] 11%
RMG Research[L] September 18–20, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% 1%[aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – 7%
Muhlenberg College[D] September 16–19, 2024 450 (LV) ± 6.0% 48% 43% 5% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 16–19, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 2%[al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov September 11–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% 3%[aa] 13%
Emerson College[A] September 15–18, 2024 880 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% – 11%
MassINC Polling Group[O] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 2%[am] 6%
Morning Consult September 9–18, 2024 1,756 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Marist College September 12–17, 2024 1,663 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 46% 1%[j] 1%
1,476 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 47% – 1%
Quinnipiac University September 12–16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 43% 1%[an] 3%
The Washington Post September 12–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 7%[ao] –
48% 48% 5%[ap] –
NYT/Siena College[B] September 11–16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% – 13%
1,082 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 40% – 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 2%[q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College September 4–15, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 40% 3%[aq] 10%
Suffolk University[E] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 6–9, 2024 801 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 36% 5%[as] 14%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,910 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 40% – 11%
co/efficient September 4–6, 2024 889 (LV) ± 3.29% 45% 36% – 19%
CBS News/YouGov September 3–6, 2024 1,076 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 3%[at] 8%
YouGov[C] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 41% – 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 28–30, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% – 8%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 46% 7%[au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 38% 4%[av] 14%
Emerson College[A] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[P] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 47% 41% – 12%
800 (RV) – 45% 40% – 15%
ActiVote August 3-23, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45% – –
Fabrizio Ward[Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 43% – 11%
Cygnal (R) August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
42% 38% 7%[aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 36% 1%[ax] 17%
Emerson College August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Quinnipiac University August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 44% 1%[ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group[R] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 51% 39% – 10%
Franklin & Marshall College July 21 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 3%[az] 13%
NYT/Siena College August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% – 14%
693 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 37% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 40% 2%[ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] July 26 – August 2, 2024 411 (LV) – 53% 40% – 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 42% – 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 4%[bb] 11%
Emerson College[S] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Research (R)[T] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[U] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) – 44% 37% 3%[bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 44% – 9%
YouGov[C] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) – 51% 39% 1% 9%
NYT/Siena College July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% – 8%
Expedition Strategies[W] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) – 48% 45% – 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] June 29 – July 1, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 4%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% – 12%
The Bullfinch Group[X] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% – 16%
Emerson College[A] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% – 12%
Marist College June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% – 2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[Y] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 47% 37% 4%[bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% – 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[A] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[R] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group[X] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Z] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[aj] 2%
Common Ground (R)[X] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[be] 20%
Change Research (D)[AA] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican David McCormick 3,369,032 49.02%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 3,327,838 48.42%
Libertarian John Thomas 88,299 1.28%
Green Leila Hazou 64,552 0.94%
Constitution Marty Selker 23,287 0.34%
Total votes 6,874,008 100.0%

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  6. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ a b Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. ^ a b c "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  15. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%
  18. ^ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Refuse" with 2%
  22. ^ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other" with 1%
  27. ^ a b Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ^ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ^ "Other" with 5%
  32. ^ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. ^ a b c d "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Other" with 1%
  38. ^ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  41. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 3%
  44. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  52. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

[edit]
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  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  3. ^ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024". CNN. July 20, 2024.
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  6. ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
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  11. ^ Hudson, Lee (April 10, 2023). "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  12. ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
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  14. ^ Cole, John (March 6, 2024). "Pennsylvania GOP U.S. Senate candidate McCormick endorses Trump for president". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 7, 2024. Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
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  26. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  27. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  28. ^ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. November 14, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
  29. ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
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  40. ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
  41. ^ "Actors' Equity Association Endorses Bob Casey for United States Senate". www.actorsequity.org. Actors' Equity Association. August 8, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  42. ^ Kauffman, William (March 14, 2024). "PRESS RELEASE: AFSCME Council 13 members unanimously endorse Senator Bob Casey". Council 13 AFSCME. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  43. ^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
  44. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
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  46. ^ "United Mine Workers endorses Casey for re-election in Pennsylvania". UMWA. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  47. ^ "USW Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  48. ^ Staff, P. G. N. (April 10, 2024). "PGN Editorial Endorsements: Primary 2024". Philadelphia Gay News. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
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  50. ^ a b "2024 Presidential Primary Official Results - United States Senator". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved May 4, 2024.
  51. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state". Fox News. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  52. ^ Cole, John (March 8, 2024). "Three candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat remain on ballot following petition challenges". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  53. ^ Cole, John (March 11, 2024). "Casey vs McCormick general election matchup appears set after petition challenges". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  54. ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  55. ^ "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
  56. ^ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will (September 15, 2023). "Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate". ABC News. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  57. ^ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill.
  58. ^ a b Smith, Allan; Bowman, Bridget (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick jumps into the critical Pennsylvania Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  59. ^ a b "Dave McCormick April 2024 Event in Texas with George W. Bush". Documented. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  60. ^ LeVine, Marianne (April 13, 2024). "Trump endorses a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate he once condemned". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 13, 2024.
  61. ^ "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate in Pennsylvania". John Bolton PAC. April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  62. ^ Siwy, Bruce (September 21, 2023). "Who is David McCormick? Here are 5 things to know about Bob Casey's possible GOP opponent". Erie Times-News. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
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  65. ^ Kalinowski, Bob (April 4, 2024). "McCormick, allies blast Casey during Back Mountain campaign stop". The Citizens' Voice. Retrieved April 17, 2024.
  66. ^ Newhouse, Savannah (September 27, 2023). "Senator Marsha Blackburn Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate". LegiStorm. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
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  68. ^ Tamari, Jonathan (May 24, 2023). "McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  69. ^ Eberwein, Richard (March 7, 2024). "David McCormick's campaign won't say if he would support Duckworth's bill to protect IVF". Heartland Signal. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  70. ^ White, Jaxon (September 21, 2023). "State Sen. Ryan Aument would endorse Dave McCormick's U.S. Senate run". LNP Lancaster Online. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
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  73. ^ a b "CPAC Endorses David McCormick for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". CPAC.
  74. ^ "2024 ENDORSED CANDIDATES". Log Cabin Republicans. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  75. ^ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation) (October 1, 2023). "PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  76. ^ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP) (October 1, 2023). "Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  77. ^ "RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  78. ^ Mastrull, Diane (September 30, 2023). "David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
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  94. ^ "Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event". The White House. September 14, 2024. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
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  96. ^ @BenZeisloft (November 4, 2024). "I am an evangelical voter in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump could have had my vote had he not started to support most kinds of abortion and vowed to fund IVF with my tax dollars. I am casting my vote for @DustyDeevers as President and for @BradleyWPierce as Vice President. I know that both men fear the Lord and would establish justice if they were elected. I voted for some Republicans in state and local races, some third-party candidates like @JohnThomasPA who have vowed to protect the preborn, and wrote in qualified Christian men when there were no other options. None of this was necessary. I would have voted for Donald Trump or any other Republican candidate who vowed to protect the preborn and end mass child sacrifice in our nation. If the Republican Party wants evangelical votes, they cannot shirk evangelical policy priorities, and most importantly they cannot shirk their duty to obey and honor the Triune God and govern in their offices with justice and righteousness. I will not reward betrayal with my vote" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  97. ^ "Libertarian US Senate candidate receives crucial endorsement". Leader Times. October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  98. ^ Suter, Tara (October 31, 2024). "Nikki Haley tells Pennsylvania voters: 'Take the emotion out' of vote". The Hill. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
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[edit]
Official campaign websites
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