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2024 United States presidential election in Missouri

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
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Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



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The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Missouri is a Midwestern state with heavy Southern cultural influence, having been a border state and contested between the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War. A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. It is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in both of his election bids.

As a state located almost entirely in the conservative Bible Belt, with the southern portion of the state being part of the Upland South, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and is now a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. Democratic strength in Missouri today is largely limited to the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, as well as the college town of Columbia. The state is once again predicted to be securely won by the Republican nominee, Trump, in 2024.[2]

Primary elections

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Republican caucuses

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Main article: 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses

The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.

Missouri Republican caucus, March 2, 2024[3][4]
Candidate State delegates Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 924 100.00 54 0 54
Nikki Haley 0 0.00 0 0 0
David Stuckenberg 0 0.00 0 0 0
Total: 924 100 54 0 54

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Missouri Democratic presidential primary

The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.

Missouri Democratic primary, March 22, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 16,295 85.3% 61
Uncommitted 2,229 11.7% 3
Marianne Williamson 298 1.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 178 0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 40 0.2%
Jason Palmer 36 0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato 24 0.1%
Total: 19,100 100.0% 64 6 70

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[13] Likely R June 11, 2024
RCP[14] Likely R June 26, 2024

Polling

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Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[15] September 12–13, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 53% 43% 4%[b]
55%[c] 43% 2%[b]
Change Resaerch (D)[16] September 11–13, 2024 1,237 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 41% 9%
GQR (D)[17] September 6–12, 2024 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 44% 1%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
ActiVote[18] July 25 – August 22, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41% –
YouGov/Saint Louis University[19] August 8–16, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 41% 5%[d]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[20] June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 40% 7%
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 509 (LV) – 49% 43% 8%
Emerson College[22] January 23–28, 2024 1,830 (RV) ± 2.2% 49% 32% 19%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[23] October 10–11, 2023 806 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 39% 9%
SurveyUSA[24] October 27 – November 1, 2022 991 (RV) ± 3.7% 52% 34% 14%
Emerson College[25] October 26–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 37% 9%
Emerson College[26] September 23–27, 2022 1,160 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 37% 12%
SurveyUSA[27] September 14–18, 2022 830 (RV) ± 3.9% 52% 35% 13%
SurveyUSA[28] July 24–27, 2022 1,981 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 35% 14%
SurveyUSA[29] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 35% 15%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[30] September 18–20, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 2.9% 55% 36% 9%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[31] April 21–22, 2021 933 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 38% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[20] June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 35% 7% 1% 1% 6%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 509 (LV) – 45% 42% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 509 (LV) – 51% 36% 13%

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%
  3. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ^ "Other" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  3. ^ "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri's GOP caucuses". ABC News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.[failed verification]
  4. ^ "Missouri primary results". Associated Press. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  5. ^ "Missouri Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races". Emerson College Polling. September 17, 2024.
  16. ^ Clermont, Stephen (September 17, 2024). "Missouri Memo - September 17, 2024" (PDF). Change Research.
  17. ^ Lemon, Jason (September 13, 2024). "Lucas Kunce Within Striking Distance of Josh Hawley—Internal Poll". Newsweek.
  18. ^ Allis, Victor (August 22, 2024). "Trump Leads with Expected Margin in Missouri". ActiVote. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  19. ^ Rogers, Steven; Burle, Ashley; Ritter, Gary; Warren, Kenneth (August 29, 2024). "Top Line Results for August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll" (PDF). Saint Louis University.
  20. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (June 21, 2024). "Missouri 2024 Poll: Ashcroft 23%, Kehoe 20% Lead Republican Primary for Governor; 46% undecided". Emerson Polling.
  21. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  22. ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  23. ^ "October 2023 - Missouri Statewide" (PDF). Missouri Scout. October 12, 2023.
  24. ^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #26640". SurveyUSA. November 2, 2022.
  25. ^ Mumford, Camille (November 1, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
  26. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 29, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt With Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
  27. ^ "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again (Again) As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Largely Unchanged Since May". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2022.
  28. ^ "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Unchanged, as are Approval Ratings, Since May". SurveyUSA. July 28, 2022.
  29. ^ Usery, Stephanie; Ruch, Amber (May 20, 2022). "Exclusive poll shows who Missourians would vote for in 2024 Trump vs. Biden rematch". First Alert 4.
  30. ^ "MISSOURI 2022 General Election - September 2021" (PDF). Missouri Scout. September 20, 2021.
  31. ^ "April 2021 - Missouri 2022 General Election Survey" (PDF). Missouri Scout. April 22, 2021.
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