2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Washington voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and is predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic party in 2024.
Primary election
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Washington Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Missouri.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 601,070 | 76.43% | 43 | 0 | 43 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 151,485 | 19.26% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 17,870 | 2.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,702 | 1.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 7,318 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 786,445 | 100.00% | 43 | 0 | 43 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas, Mississippi, and Georgia.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 763,739 | 83.5% | 90 | ||
| Uncommitted delegates | 89,764 | 9.8% | 2 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 25,308 | 2.8% | 0 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 25,190 | 2.8% | 0 | ||
| Write-in votes | 10,966 | 1.2% | 0 | ||
| Total: | 914,967 | 100.0% | 92 | 19 | 111 |
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation
- Cornel West, Independent
- Rachele Fruit, Socialist Workers Party
- Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent
- Joseph Kishore, Socialist Equality Party
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[8] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[9] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[10] | Safe D | August 20, 2024 |
| 538[11] | Solid D | September 13, 2024 |
| RCP[12] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research[13][A] | September 3–6, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | 32% | 11% |
| DHM Research[14] | July 12–17, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 40% | 14%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[15][B] | July 10–13, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[16][C] | July 24–25, 2024 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research[14] | July 12–17, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 38% | 17%[c] |
| SurveyUSA[15][B] | July 10–13, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[17][C] | May 15–16, 2024 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| The Bullfinch Group[18][D] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| John Zogby Strategies[19][E] | April 13–21, 2024 | 418 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[20][F] | March 18–21, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[21][C] | February 13–14, 2024 | 797 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[22][C] | November 14–15, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
| Elway Research[23][A] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 29% | 31%[d] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24][C] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 11% |
| Emerson College[25] | September 30 – October 1, 2022 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[26] | August 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 41% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research[27][A] | May 13–16, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 34% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 17% |
| The Bullfinch Group[18][D] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 35% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| Elway Research[23][A] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 25% | 9% | 3% | – | 26%[e] |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[19][E] | April 13–21, 2024 | 418 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[19][E] | April 13–21, 2024 | 418 (LV) | – | 49% | 31% | 20% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research[14] | July 12–17, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | 20%[f] |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research[14] | July 12–17, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 22%[f] |
Raphael Warnock vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Raphael Warnock Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research[14] | July 12–17, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 37% | 23%[g] |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24][C] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Washington (state)
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ "Someone else" with 13%
- ^ "Someone else" with 22%; "I would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 10%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
- ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Washington Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "March 12, 2024 Presidential Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election: 2 months out - An independent nonpartisan analysis of public opinion trends in Washington and the Pacific Northwest" (PDF). Crosscut. September 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e "DHM Panel Washington July 2024 Toplines" (PDF). DHM Research. July 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "Washington State Voters Ready to Give Joe Biden a Second Term by 14-Point Margin; Should Biden Not Run, Kamala Harris Wins WA By 15 Points". SurveyUSA. July 15, 2024.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (July 26, 2024). "Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters". Northwest Progressive Institute.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 20, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided". Northwest Progressive Institute.
- ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck". Google Docs. March 21, 2024.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (February 17, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points". Northwest Progressive Institute.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington". Northwest Progressive Institute.
- ^ a b "Crosscut/Elway Poll - 2024 National Election Preview" (PDF). Crosscut. November 23, 2023.
- ^ a b Villeneuve, Andrew (June 12, 2023). "Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve". Northwest Progressive Institute.
- ^ "Washington 2022: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray Holds 9-Point Lead in Re-election Bid Against Republican Tiffany Smiley". Emerson College Polling. October 4, 2024.
- ^ Jordan, John; Morris, Dick (August 17, 2022). "Washington U.S. Senate Survey" (PDF). McLaughlin & Associates.
- ^ Blankinship, Donna Gordon (May 24, 2024). "Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race". Crosscut.
